Studio4Motion
Case study · November 2026

Case study

Advertising in a recession. Keep it working.

Why successful marketing still needs an expert at the wheel.

Once the ads are running, the rankings are climbing and the leads are coming in, canceling the people behind it can look like a saving. Independent research and the platforms' own documentation describe what happens next. Some losses build slowly over years. Others arrive overnight, when a platform changes its rules or an AI feature takes the click. Either way, the loss is easy to miss and expensive to win back.

−28%Average market share lost three years after brands stopped advertisingEhrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science, 2023
8 vs 15Clicks on a regular search result per 100 Google visits, with and without an AI summaryPew Research Center, 2025
<1 in 16New pages that reach Google's top 10 within their first yearAhrefs, 2025

The pattern

The story in four frames

1

It's working.

  • Ads running
  • Rankings up
  • Leads coming in
2

So the agency gets canceled.

"Mission accomplished. Let's save the fee."

3

But the river keeps moving.

  • Google updates its ranking systems
  • Meta changes what advertisers control
  • AI search changes who gets the click
  • Competitors keep improving
4

The smarter move: keep it running.

Someone watches the water and adjusts the course before results slip.

MonitorAdaptImprove

What the research shows

Three places where momentum fades

Every figure on this page comes from a named, dated source. The full list, with links, is at the end.

Paid ads

Brands that stop advertising lose market share every year: 10% after one year, 20% after two, 28% after three.

See the data

Organic search

Top rankings take years to earn, and pages lose ground slowly once nobody updates them.

See the data

AI search

When Google shows an AI summary, people click a regular result about half as often.

See the data

Paid advertising

Stop advertising, and market share slips every year

In 2023 the Journal of Advertising Research published a study from the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science of brands that stopped advertising for a year or longer. On average their market share fell at a steady rate, year after year, measured against the last year they advertised.

An earlier Ehrenberg-Bass study measured sales instead of share and found the same shape: 16% lower after one year, 25% after two and 36% after three.

The first monthsThe decline is gradual, and some brands held steady at first. That quiet start is what makes canceling look safe.
Who loses mostSmaller brands, and brands that were already slipping before they stopped, lost the most share.

Both studies followed brands that stopped advertising entirely. Ads that keep running with nobody managing them meet a different problem: the platform changes the rules underneath them.

Source 1 Source 2
Average market share after brands stop advertising Indexed to 100 in the last year with advertising: 90 after one year (minus 10%), 80 after two years (minus 20%), 72 after three years (minus 28%). Where share stood with ads Last year with ads: index 100 100 Last year with ads Year 1 no ads: index 90 −10% Year 1 no ads Year 2 no ads: index 80 −20% Year 2 no ads Year 3 no ads: index 72 −28% Year 3 no ads
Average market share after brands stopped advertising, indexed to 100 in the last year with ads. Phua, Hartnett, Beal, Kennedy and Trinh, Journal of Advertising Research, June 2023.

In a downturn

Advertising during a recession: what the research shows

Harvard Business Review80%of companies that survive a recession take more than three years to regain their prerecession growth
Harvard Business Review9%come out stronger than before and outgrow their industry rivals by at least 10%
Nielsen2% a quarterof long-term revenue lost while a brand is off air, in Nielsen's own models

Most companies cut marketing first when a recession hits. A Harvard Business Review study of 4,700 public companies across three recessions found that about 80% of the survivors needed more than three years to regain their prerecession sales and profit growth. Just 9% came out stronger and outgrew their rivals by at least 10%. The best odds went to companies that cut costs through efficiency while investing significantly more than rivals in R&D and marketing.

Stopping costs share. When 365 U.S. supermarket brands stopped advertising for a year or longer, their market share fell on average 10% after one year, 20% after two and 28% after three (the chart above). Nielsen's own models put the loss at 2% of long-term revenue for every quarter off air, with three to five years to rebuild. In a Kantar simulation for one brand, a 50% cut instead of a full stop left long-term brand memories almost untouched.

More is not automatically better. A Journal of Marketing study of listed U.S. firms across seven recessions from 1969 to 2008 found the payoff depends on market share, debt and type of business, and estimated that 92% of consumer services firms overspend on advertising in recessions. Writing in Harvard Business Review, Nirmalya Kumar and Koen Pauwels conclude that firms that keep their marketing spend and reallocate it typically fare better than firms that cut it.

These are patterns across many companies, not proof that advertising alone made the difference. The Nielsen and Kantar figures are the vendors' own data.

Source 13 Source 14 Source 1 Source 15 Source 16 Source 18

Faster than the study

Platform and AI changes arrive overnight

The Ehrenberg-Bass numbers describe the slow version: people forget a brand gradually, so share leaks away over years. The platforms a business depends on change on their own schedule, and since AI entered search, many of those changes land in one step.

  • November 10, 2026Google starts its November 2026 core update, its third core update this year and its eighth announced ranking update of 2026.Source 12
  • Early November 2026Meta removes the option to show ads to one gender only.From our desk
  • Any search with an AI summaryClicks on regular results fall from 15 to 8 per 100 visits.Source 10
  • After a core updateGoogle's own example of a large drop: from position 4 to position 29.Source 11

A step like that shows up in the numbers without an explanation. Unless someone tracks what changed and when, the business is left guessing which change caused the drop and how to answer it.

Two speeds of lossIllustration: one line slopes down slowly over years; the other stays level, then drops in a single step when a platform or AI change arrives.A platform or AI changeSlow leakover yearsSudden stepovernight
The study measured the slope. Rule changes and AI features add steps on top of it. Illustration, not measured data.

Ad platforms

In November 2026, Meta changed the rules

Advertisers could once show their ads to women only, or to men only. In early November 2026, that option disappeared from Meta's ad setup: gender can now be entered only as a suggestion. The change reached our desk on November 5, and we had the fix in a client's account within hours.

For a business whose buyers are mostly women, such as a bridal or boudoir photographer, budget can now drift to men who react to the ads but rarely book.

The answer is a value rule: an account setting that tells Meta to bid up to 90% less for the group that brings low-quality leads. It helps only after someone notices the change and builds the rule.

Source 3

AI search

AI search: seen more often, clicked less often

Google launched AI Overviews in May 2024. A year later, BrightEdge reported that search impressions had grown more than 49% since the launch, while click-throughs had fallen nearly 30%.

Impressions+49%since AI Overviews launched
Click-throughs−30%nearly, since May 2024

Pew Research Center measured the same effect from the searcher's side, using the March 2025 browsing data of 900 U.S. adults across 68,879 Google searches. Links inside the AI summary were clicked in 1% of visits. Most summaries (88%) cited three or more sources, so the goal is to be one of the pages a summary cites.

Source 9 Source 10
15 of 100 visits without an AI summary include a click on a regular result 15clicks on a regular result per 100 visits, without an AI summary
8 of 100 visits with an AI summary include a click on a regular result 8clicks on a regular result per 100 visits, with an AI summary
Each dot is 1 of 100 Google search visits. Pew Research Center, July 22, 2025.

What gets a page cited

Google says AI Overviews and AI Mode have no extra requirements. A page must be indexed and eligible to show with a snippet, and the usual SEO fundamentals apply: pages Google can crawl, internal links, a good page experience and helpful content. Both features may use "query fan-out," running several related searches across subtopics to build one answer. A site that covers the subtopics around a question gives those searches more ways to find it.

Source 8

Freshness counts

Ahrefs found that URLs cited by AI assistants are 25.7% fresher on average than regular search results. It also notes that a page can recover its Google ranking and still be missing from AI answers, because the two are separate layers of visibility.

Source 5

The smarter move

Keep the engine running

Active management runs as a cycle: we watch the numbers, respond when a platform or a competitor moves, and improve what already works.

MonitorAdaptImproveand repeat
AreaWith active managementWhen the work stops
Ad accountsPlatform changes are caught and answered within days, like the value rule above.Old settings keep running after their meaning has changed.
ContentPages that start to slip are refreshed while they still rank.The decline shows up in the numbers months after it began.
Site healthSpeed and stability are checked against Google's published targets.Drift goes unmeasured until rankings move.
AI searchPages stay indexed, current and complete across the subtopics AI searches look at.Fresher sources take the citations.

Questions

Advertising in a recession: common questions

Should a business keep advertising during a recession?

Usually yes. In Harvard Business Review, Kumar and Pauwels find firms that keep and reallocate marketing spend typically fare better than those that cut it. An HBR study of 4,700 public companies found the best odds of flourishing after a recession went to firms pairing efficiency cuts with outinvesting rivals in R&D and marketing. Both are patterns, not proof.

Source 14 Source 13

What happens to a brand that stops advertising?

It tends to lose share at a steady rate. Ehrenberg-Bass Institute researchers tracked 365 U.S. supermarket brands that stopped advertising for a year or more: share fell an average of 10% after one year, 20% after two and 28% after three. Smaller and already declining brands lost more. The study covers packaged goods and shows association, not proof of cause.

Source 1

How long does it take to recover after you stop marketing?

Longer than the break. Nielsen's marketing mix models estimate that brands off air lose 2% of long-term revenue each quarter and need 3 to 5 years to rebuild that equity. In one Kantar case, a UK drinks brand lost 2 share points where it went dark and did not regain them the next year. Both are vendors' own data.

Source 15 Source 17

If I have to cut my marketing budget, what is the least harmful way?

Reduce rather than stop, and cut weak channels first. In a Kantar simulation for a German telecom brand, a 50% cut left long-term brand memories almost untouched, while going dark hurt both short- and long-term memories. Nielsen advises dropping channels with poor results and moving that money to stronger ones. Both are vendor findings, not independent studies.

Source 16 Source 15

Does spending more on advertising in a recession always pay off?

No. A Journal of Marketing study of listed U.S. companies across seven recessions from 1969 to 2008 found the payoff depends on market share, debt and type of business. It estimated that 92% of consumer services firms overspend on advertising in recessions. Kantar adds that a share of voice above market share makes growth probable, not certain.

Source 18 Source 19

The takeaway

Getting traction is an achievement.

Staying ahead takes continuous attention.

The work that built your results is the same work that keeps them.

Keep publishing through the downturn. Your first Infinity Content Loop is free.

Sources

Where every figure comes from

  1. Phua, P., Hartnett, N., Beal, V., Kennedy, R. and Trinh, G. "When Brands Go Dark: A Replication and Extension: Examining Market Share of Brands that Stop Advertising for a Year or Longer." Journal of Advertising Research, June 2023. Summary at the ARF
  2. Gelzinis, A., Kennedy, R., Beal, V., Hartnett, N. and Sharp, B. "What happens to sales when brands stop advertising for long periods?" Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science. Read the article
  3. Jon Loomer. "Value Rules: A Deep Dive." Jon Loomer Digital. Bid adjustments range from 90% lower to 1,000% higher. Read the guide
  4. Patrick Stox. "How Long Does It Take to Rank in Google? And How Old Are Top Ranking Pages?" Ahrefs, May 15, 2025, updated August 12, 2026. Read the study
  5. "What Is Content Decay? (And How to Fix It Before It Tanks Your Traffic)." Ahrefs, March 13, 2026, updated October 2, 2026. Read the article
  6. "Understanding page experience in Google Search results." Google Search Central, updated September 22, 2026. Read the documentation
  7. "Understanding Core Web Vitals and Google search results." Google Search Central, updated December 10, 2025. Read the documentation
  8. "AI features and your website." Google Search Central, updated December 10, 2025. Read the documentation
  9. "One Year Into Google AI Overviews, BrightEdge Data Reveals Google Search Usage Increases by 49%." BrightEdge, May 14, 2025. Read the release
  10. "Google users are less likely to click on links when an AI summary appears in the results." Pew Research Center, July 22, 2025. Read the report
  11. "Google Search's core updates and your website." Google Search Central. Read the documentation
  12. Google Search Status Dashboard, ranking update history. 2026 so far: a February Discover update; March spam and core updates; a May core update; June, August and September spam updates; and the November core update, started November 10. See the history
  13. Gulati, R., Nohria, N. and Wohlgezogen, F. "Roaring Out of Recession." Harvard Business Review, March 2010. Read the summary
  14. Kumar, N. and Pauwels, K. "Don’t Cut Your Marketing Budget in a Recession." Harvard Business Review, August 14, 2020. Read the article
  15. "Marketing during a recession: Finding the upside of an economic downturn." Nielsen, September 27, 2022. Figures from Nielsen’s own marketing mix models. Read the article
  16. Albana, H. "The dark side of media: going dark and its impact on brand health." Kantar, December 12, 2023. A simulation for one German telecom brand. Read the article
  17. Kyriakidi, M. "Modern Marketing Dilemmas: How should marketers stand up to recession?" Kantar, December 2, 2022. One client case, brand not named. Read the article
  18. Srinivasan, R., Lilien, G. L. and Sridhar, S. "Should firms spend more on research and development and advertising during recessions?" Journal of Marketing 75(3), 2011, 49-65. Read the abstract
  19. Hollis, N. "How brands can survive, and then thrive, during a COVID-19 triggered recession." Kantar, April 15, 2020. Read the article